A federal election will be held at the end of this month. At the beginning of the year the polls suggested a thumping victory for the Conservative Party. Today (April 3) the polls suggest a strong Liberal Party majority.
In terms of experience and credentials Mark Carney is a real step up from Justin Trudeau. Goldman Sachs is the ne plus ultra in private global finance, and Carney was immensely successful there. The appointment to the governorship of the Bank of Canada is recognition accorded to very few. And no one had ever been poached from the B of C to lead the Bank of England. Quibbles on his performance aside, Carney’s resume is top flight.
So why fear? Some economists are calling the last ten years Canada’s lost decade. Economic growth has been practically nil. Capital has been frightened away as Canadian policy is seen as anti-growth, with projects mired in a bog of regulation that simply obviates any business case in the resource sector. The resource sector has been a driver of Canadian prosperity for generations, but Carney says he will keep C-69.
Carney’s advocacy of ever higher carbon prices is well documented, so his reset of the consumer carbon tax to zero is seen by his opposition as a feint, easily reversed after an election win. Having focused at least the last 15 years on climate, he has earned his bona fides. There’s no reason to expect him to change.
Why loathing? Pierre Poilievre had a 20+ per cent lead in the polls for much of 2024. That evaporated literally in days. Commentators say they have never seen the like. Support for Poilievre was as soft as a Dairy Queen cone on a warm day. Some of it comes from his style – the strident tone, the mocking of opponents. Some of it comes from Canadians’ desperate search for someone to deal with Trump, with the Liberals playing the experience card. To say that Poilievre hasn’t sealed the deal with Canadians is to put it mildly.
Both John Turner and Kim Campbell started their campaigns on top of the polls; we know how that turned out. Perhaps Carney’s rise will be just as ephemeral. With three weeks to go, I’m not counting on it.